I haven't exactly been simulating poker. There are a lot of components to complicate things. What I have been doing is seeing how things would generally work out if every hand was worth the same. I used Excel to randomly generate multiple best of series (best two out of three, best three out of five, etc) at different odds. It looks like my suspicions have at least some value.
The spreadsheet was originally designed to check out one hundred series for each best of category for a win percentage that can easily be changed. I send the totals to the first page. This way, I could copy and paste values into a table. Since a lot of this was curiosity and personal interest, I haven't put together much of a format. I also had ten runs of each percentage that I was pursuing to generate percentages based on 1,000 instead of 100.
| 51% | 55% | 60% | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 95% | 100% | |
| 1 of 1 | 50.2% | 55.9% | 59.5% | 63.0% | 69.7% | 76.9% | 81.4% | 83.6% | 90.0% | 96.7% | 99.3% |
| 2 of 3 | 47.6% | 56.3% | 65.4% | 72.3% | 78.2% | 82.5% | 88.4% | 94.1% | 96.9% | 99.4% | 100.0% |
| 3 of 5 | 50.9% | 59.0% | 68.1% | 79.6% | 84.3% | 87.9% | 92.6% | 96.9% | 99.1% | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| 4 of 7 | 53.8% | 60.0% | 72.2% | 78.7% | 87.1% | 92.3% | 96.1% | 98.5% | 99.4% | 99.8% | 100.0% |
| 5 of 9 | 52.6% | 59.9% | 72.9% | 82.0% | 90.2% | 94.8% | 98.8% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 6 of 11 | 49.3% | 61.1% | 79.8% | 83.4% | 92.1% | 97.7% | 99.3% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 7 of 13 | 51.6% | 66.1% | 78.6% | 87.0% | 92.9% | 98.1% | 99.1% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 8 of 15 | 53.9% | 67.8% | 80.4% | 90.1% | 95.4% | 98.0% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 9 of 17 | 51.9% | 66.4% | 80.5% | 90.2% | 96.9% | 99.0% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 10 of 19 | 55.8% | 68.8% | 81.2% | 93.1% | 96.8% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
I have saved a copy of this spreadsheet on OneDrive. It can be found at https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=2E6EFB80915ED5BD!7532&authkey=!ALrmmtDaG_XB6ww&ithint=file%2cxlsx
I have also set up the spreadsheet so that I can revisit it in the future. Maybe someday I will play around with best 50 out of 99.
One last thing. I'm not a football fan. One of the problems that I have with the sport is the 1 of 1 component. This decreases the chances that the more deserving team will win. It might be a more marketable approach to sports, but I prefer skill and work ethic to play a bigger role in outcomes.
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