Summer 2013 Weather Summary

I have decided to start providing seasonal summaries for the Washingtonian Weather Index. Why? Because I suspected that this year would rank pretty low. It turns out that my suspicions were right. Since seasons don't always start and end on the same date, I should point out the date range that I decided to use. June 21 through September 22 from 1948 and later are included in this list. 2013 ranks as our second worst summer. Only 1967 was worse.

For those who have been paying attention to my Washingtonian Weather Index posts, you probably know that I struggled more last year. I'm really not surprised that 2013 ranks worse. There are reasons for this. 

One of my issues last year was that the weather wore me down over time rather than having problems with specific days. The index was not designed to say, "an 80 degree day is worse following another 80 degree than following a 60 degree day," even though that is actually true. Even though every day in July was rotten, we actually had a few decent moments in August. By comparison, every day in last August was rotten. It took until some time in October before I felt that the weather was actually nice.

I also have to work with the data that I have inputted. There are some sources that have expanded measures for recent years, but I believe my initial data (I don't think I have it saved any more) only offered Highs, Lows, and rainfall totals.

Another issue is timing. Even with my struggles last year, I don't hesitate to say that last year's summer started off better. Not only that, but my problems continued into October. As far as this summer's numbers look, the timing was a very good match for summer. There were some days in late spring that weren't too bad. The first day of fall really put summer behind us (although that day is actually included for summer).

I also have to admit that my formulas are imperfect. I have already been caught a little off guard by how low July and August scored. I knew they would be low, but I didn't expect either month to score as low as they did. Perhaps an even weight between highs and lows is less than ideal. Adjusting the formulas might help the accuracy, but that will not happen. I want to maintain objectivity and avoid invalidating previous reports.

I know I'm ranting too much, but let me get to the point. This summer was much worse than last year's from an objective stand point even though I struggled more last year. There were also reasons that I checked the summer numbers this year when I didn't last year. This was actually expected. Even though they have flaws like everything else in the universe, the numbers seem to work.

Summer Over the Years
Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score
1	1954	61.75%		23	1972	52.33%		45	1981	48.19%
2	1955	61.16%		24	1956	52.21%		46	2004	48.12%
3	1948	58.25%		25	1993	52.01%		47	1974	47.87%
4	1964	56.92%		26	1973	51.70%		48	2008	47.86%
5	1953	56.29%		27	2001	51.47%		49	2002	47.81%
6	1980	56.13%		28	1976	51.24%		50	2011	47.73%
7	1949	56.06%		29	1951	50.78%		51	1989	47.42%
8	1957	55.37%		30	1997	50.76%		52	1958	47.10%
9	1959	55.24%		31	1985	50.74%		53	1987	46.79%
10	1963	55.08%		32	1971	50.56%		54	1992	46.67%
11	1962	54.94%		33	1996	50.53%		55	2012	46.48%
12	1983	54.37%		34	2010	50.06%		56	1961	45.98%
13	1978	54.27%		35	1975	49.91%		57	1991	45.88%
14	1968	53.79%		36	2000	49.89%		58	2003	45.84%
15	1966	53.77%		37	1979	49.08%		59	1995	45.37%
16	1952	53.62%		38	1984	48.96%		60	2009	45.17%
17	1969	53.22%		39	1986	48.87%		61	2006	44.82%
18	1970	53.19%		40	1965	48.83%		62	1994	44.61%
19	1960	53.04%		41	2007	48.72%		63	1990	43.92%
20	1950	53.03%		42	1988	48.64%		64	1998	43.71%
21	1999	52.50%		43	1977	48.50%		65	2013	42.45%
22	1982	52.50%		44	2005	48.36%		66	1967	40.62%

For more information on how scores have been generated, visit my blog post at:

http://maritimeorca0.blogspot.com/2012/03/follow-up-weather-index-in-excel.html
Keep in mind that scores are based off of averages. These values are likely to shift a little over time.