Friday, August 31, 2012

Too many teams make the playoffs

There are 30 teams in the NHL. After 82 games, the number is reduced to 16. That means that the bulk of the year doesn’t even weed out all of the below-average teams. While it makes some sense in terms of the financial situation, it seriously devalues the regular season.

I know that this isn’t a new problem. In fact, expansion has improved this particular issue. Even so, I would much rather cut the teams in the playoffs to 8. This would give the regular season more value and meaning. In an 82-game season, it would be nice if those 82 games were actually worth something.

Another issue is the overtime loss. I have already written about this misguided rule. This rule is worse when you have 16 out of 30 teams continuing on. Since the points are awarded to teams that lose. The OTL helps weak teams reach the playoffs.

There are some people who want the NHL to change to a 3-point system where winners in regulation receive 3 points, winners in overtime receive 2 points, losers in overtime receive 1 point, and losers in regulation receive 0 points. This would definitely be an improvement over the current rule, but it wouldn’t be as effective as a straight win-loss approach (or better yet, bring back ties). If the NHL can get the parity that it wants (or reduces the role that skill and work ethic have on outcomes – okay, maybe that one has already happened), the bottom team in each conference (8th out of 15) should have a slight losing record. Let’s say two teams finishes with 40 wins and 42 losses (the best record that is still a losing record). A team that finishes every game in regulation in this scenario would have 120 points (40 regulation wins * 3 points = 120 points. 42 regulation losses * 0 points = 0 points) and a team that finishes every game in overtime in this scenario would have 122 points (40 overtime wins * 2 points = 80 points. 42 overtime losses * 1 point = 42 points). It would still be slightly more valuable to take games to overtime.

30-8 then 8-1. There would still be more to the playoffs (proportionately) than the regular season. Personally, I think that the regular season should have roughly the same value (16-4 then 4-1 would be best), but 30 teams puts us between two possibilities that don’t require byes (which I don’t think would work well in the NHL) and I really don’t think that anyone would go for 30-4 and 4-1 (which is actually a slightly better ratio).

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