Lesser teams winning

I remember one NHL season starting with a couple disappointing games. This was after the rule changes but before I cut down to watching a single team. The problem I had was that both televised games seemed lopsided, but the wrong teams won. After looking at stats, shot totals in all opening day games were actually fairly lopsided (4 games?). Only the game with the closest shot total was won by the team that seemed to play better.


I know which season this was. It was 2009-2010. How can someone who is not memory-oriented know this? Combined with previous frustrations with the same problem, I put together a spreadsheet. Data was entered manually, so there could be a few errors. The numbers ended up even more surprising than I had expected.

My initial criteria was a 50% shot advantage. The idea was that the totals had to be significant enough that it was a clear advantage when taking into account differences in goaltending and shot quality. That advantage included all of the games on opening night.

Looking at my numbers, it appears that stronger teams in lopsided games won 50.9% of their games. That's an insignificant advantage. If you dominate, it's a crapshoot.

The real shock with my numbers is what happened when I widened the advantage. At a 75% shot advantage, the stronger team won 48.4%. When you dominate by a larger amount, you lose the advantage? That was worse than I expected.

How about doubling the opponent? Teams won 45.5%.

Two and a half provides a bit of relief. Of course, it's also a smaller and less reliable sample size. At this point, stronger teams won 56.3%. We're back on the right track. Tripling is even better at 57.1%. Of course, that 4 out of 7. If you take out the closest, it's an even 50%. If you take the next closest, it's 40%. The most lopsided game was won by an undeserving team.

I will concede that shot totals don't tell everything, but keep in mind that this spreadsheet was started by watching teams succeed by playing like crap. Just look at the Bruins Stanley Cup victory over the Vancouver Canucks. This wasn't about shot totals. The Bruins didn't even show up for game 7, but they won the game.

This also works the other way. I was not at all satisfied with how the Canucks played when they won their second Presidents Trophy. For those who don't know, the President's Trophy is awarded to the team that finishes with the best record.

Let me add one more thing. There have been games where I have felt the Canucks were playing too well. They carried the play throughout the game, and I predicted that they would lose because of it. It's remarkable how many of those games they lose.

Let me just get to the point I'm trying to make. In the NHL, far too many games are won by the wrong teams. What's the point of watching a game if the outcome fails to reflect the game itself? This is a problem that the NHL needs to address.