October 2013 Weather Summary

I have known since the development of the Washingtonian Weather Index that the concept isn't flawless. October had to be the biggest surprise so far when it comes to how the weather feels vs. how the month scored. For the most part, I enjoyed the temperatures. We actually tied for the 5th best streak ever when it comes entire days within my preferred outdoor temperatures (40's and 50's). I was strict in setting the range from 40-59. If I go up 1 degree and looked at streaks of days from 40-60, we would have extended the streak to 24 days (a record for that range by 4 days).

Longest Streaks for 40-59 Degree Temperatures
Rank	End Date	Streak
1	2/8/1995	20
2	11/26/1998	19
3	10/22/1968	18
3	11/20/1983	18
5	11/20/1974	16
5	4/26/2003	16
5	2/19/2007	16
5	10/31/2013	16
9	11/19/2002	15
10	1/24/1953	14
10	12/23/1973	14

I will admit that it was drier than I liked. I knew that the score was going to be hurt by the lack of rain. I just didn't expect it to offset the temperatures that much. Statistically speaking, this turned out to be our 4th worst October ever. I'm guessing that some of the factors for this shocking result includes some decent Octobers in the past and an objective temperature range (ideal high: 59, ideal low: 44) that doesn't quite match my subjective range. Of course, there's also the probability that I am giving too much weight to rainfall in my formulas. Despite the final score, I want to point out that I'm not complaining.

Even more noteworthy than our monthly score is our year-to-date. 10 months into the year, we are having the next-to-worst year ever recorded. This makes a little more sense to me since we had a below average start to the year and a problematic summer.

October Summary
Date	High	Low	Rain	Score
10/1	58˚	53˚	0.31"	87.20%
10/2	55˚	52˚	0.21"	86.61%
10/3	58˚	53˚	0.03"	72.27%
10/4	64˚	53˚	0"	52.42%
10/5	68˚	58˚	0"	43.08%
10/6	73˚	60˚	0.16"	69.83%
10/7	61˚	57˚	0.02"	65.04%
10/8	57˚	52˚	0.27"	87.87%
10/9	59˚	51˚	0"	58.07%
10/10	58˚	53˚	0.04"	74.39%
10/11	57˚	54˚	0.36"	84.96%
10/12	58˚	53˚	0.04"	74.39%
10/13	59˚	52˚	0"	56.82%
10/14	60˚	50˚	0"	59.24%
10/15	60˚	51˚	0"	57.98%
10/16	55˚	52˚	0"	53.75%
10/17	58˚	53˚	0"	54.80%
10/18	55˚	50˚	0"	56.26%
10/19	51˚	49˚	0"	54.44%
10/20	51˚	49˚	0"	54.44%
10/21	53˚	50˚	0"	54.72%
10/22	58˚	52˚	0"	56.05%
10/23	55˚	49˚	0"	57.51%
10/24	50˚	47˚	0"	56.18%
10/25	54˚	50˚	0"	55.49%
10/26	53˚	50˚	0"	54.72%
10/27	57˚	52˚	0.07"	81.23%
10/28	58˚	52˚	0"	56.05%
10/29	56˚	47˚	0"	60.79%
10/30	59˚	51˚	0.02"	73.42%
10/31	58˚	55˚	0.01"	65.52%
Average/Final Score				63.73%

For more information on how scores have been generated, visit my blog post at:

http://maritimeorca0.blogspot.com/2012/03/follow-up-weather-index-in-excel.html

The Month of October Over the Years
Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score
1	1990	81.93%		18	1995	74.49%		35	1996	72.10%		51	1954	68.30%
2	1950	80.09%		19	1959	74.08%		36	1998	72.00%		52	1965	68.12%
3	1956	79.88%		20	1973	74.00%		37	1982	71.97%		53	1974	67.34%
4	1975	79.08%		21	1961	73.99%		38	1948	71.76%		54	1993	66.47%
5	1968	78.27%		22	1960	73.93%		39	1983	71.17%		55	1972	66.29%
6	1997	77.29%		23	1962	73.87%		40	1966	71.04%		56	1988	66.14%
7	2005	76.95%		24	2012	73.58%		41	1970	70.75%		57	2006	65.54%
8	1967	76.90%		25	1977	73.32%		42	2003	70.61%		58	1952	65.36%
9	1951	76.19%		26	1953	73.21%		43	1979	70.56%		59	1986	65.30%
10	2011	76.10%		27	2008	73.18%		44	1958	70.39%		60	1976	64.54%
11	1985	76.08%		28	1989	72.97%		45	2000	70.01%		61	1980	64.04%
12	1957	75.32%		29	1994	72.67%		46	1969	69.48%		62	2002	63.89%
13	2009	75.29%		30	1999	72.65%		47	1971	69.12%		63	2013	63.73%
14	2007	75.08%		31	1949	72.65%		48	1964	69.05%		64	1991	62.53%
15	2001	74.91%		32	1992	72.51%		49	1984	68.90%		65	1978	61.86%
16	1955	74.80%		33	1963	72.49%		50	2004	68.48%		66	1987	59.52%
17	1981	74.52%		34	2010	72.36%

Keep in mind that scores are based off of averages. These values are likely to shift a little over time.

Year to Date (Through October) Over the Years
Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score		Rank	Year	Score
1	1953	68.08%		18	2000	64.18%		34	2008	62.81%		50	2006	61.80%
2	2010	67.85%		19	1966	64.05%		35	1982	62.78%		51	1951	61.74%
3	1959	66.80%		20	1997	64.05%		36	1974	62.71%		52	2003	61.65%
4	1955	65.94%		21	2007	63.76%		37	1975	62.62%		53	1994	61.50%
5	1964	65.93%		22	1956	63.75%		38	1977	62.58%		54	1992	61.28%
6	1999	65.86%		23	1986	63.74%		39	1998	62.45%		55	1989	61.25%
7	1983	65.85%		24	1950	63.65%		40	1958	62.43%		56	1965	61.25%
8	1954	65.82%		25	1980	63.62%		41	1993	62.30%		57	2002	60.95%
9	1968	65.35%		26	2012	63.60%		42	1952	62.29%		58	1991	60.92%
10	1984	65.19%		27	1996	63.53%		43	1995	62.17%		59	1949	60.91%
11	1960	65.07%		28	2001	63.44%		44	1988	62.10%		60	1987	60.55%
12	1978	64.81%		29	1970	63.27%		45	1963	62.09%		61	1979	60.45%
13	1961	64.62%		30	1990	63.23%		46	1976	62.01%		62	1985	60.30%
14	1981	64.60%		31	1972	63.19%		47	2004	62.01%		63	1967	60.12%
15	2011	64.60%		32	1957	63.18%		48	1969	61.98%		64	2013	59.55%
16	1971	64.48%		33	1973	62.96%		49	2005	61.91%		65	2009	59.01%
17	1962	64.45%